2020
California Neighborhoods Count: A validation of U.S. Census Population Counts
and Housing Characteristic Estimates within California
In
response to long-standing concerns about the accuracy of census data and about
a possible undercount, we conducted the California Neighborhoods Count (CNC)
study — the first-ever independent, survey-based enumeration to directly
evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Census Bureau's population totals for a
subset of California census blocks. This 2020 research was intended to produce
parallel estimates of the 2020 Census population and housing unit totals at the
census block level, employing the same survey items as the census and using
enhanced data collection strategies and exploration of imputation methods. The
CNC block-level population estimates were sensitive to the imputation method
used to account for non-responding households, likely in part due to limited
availability of administrative data to assist the imputations. CNC identified
more housing units than Census (23,929 versus 22,668), which may be due to
CNC’s in-person address canvassing. Despite advancements
in geospatial imaging software, as well as many other approaches used by the
U.S. Census Bureau to assess coverage and validate addresses, in-field address
verification might yield a more complete accounting of inhabited housing units
than partially conducting address canvassing with in-office approaches.
Lane Burgette is a Senior
Statistician at the RAND Corporation. Dr. Burgette’s applied research is
primarily focused on health policy, especially Medicare’s physician payment
policies. Other recent research projects include an evaluation of the 2020
Census in California, gun policy research, and recidivism risk estimation for
employer background checks. Dr. Burgette’s methodological research focuses on
causal inference, methods for missing data, and Bayesian modeling. Prior to
RAND, he earned his Ph.D. in Statistics at the University of Wisconsin, and was
a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke
University.