Motivated Reasoning
under Conditions of Affective Political Polarization
Motivated
Reasoning under Conditions of Affective Political Polarization Public opinion,
especially as expressed through polls, is a central concept underlying
democratic theory and the process of representation. This research raises the
question of how this relationship works under conditions when public confidence
in poll results becomes situational. Individuals sometimes use motivated
reasoning when encountering new information, evaluating it in relation to their
prior beliefs and attitudes. On some occasions they counter argue or devalue
the new information if it does not agree with their priors. In a series of two
pre-registered survey-based experiments, respondent subjects evaluated
simulated poll results showing that a majority of Americans agreed or disagreed
with a position they hold on one of two different issues. For each issue, their
assessed credibility of the poll was lower when it suggested that the majority
held a view contrary to their own, a demonstration of motivated reasoning. For
one issue, this relationship was reinforced among more polarized respondents and
for conservatives compared to Liberals and for Republicans compared to
Democrats but not for the other issue, raising a question about whether the
impact of affective political polarization could be issue specific in this
context. In a second set of experiments, the same results were reproduced – an
effect of affective political polarization for one issue but not for the same
issue as in the first experiment. Avenues for further research are discussed.
Professor Michael W.
Traugott studies the mass media and their impact on American
politics. This includes research on the use of the media by candidates in their
campaigns and its impact on voters, as well as the ways that campaigns are
covered and the impact of this coverage on candidates. He has a particular
interest in the use of surveys and polls and the way news organizations employ
them to cover campaigns and elections